(September 10, 2009 - Insidermedicine)

An aggressive vaccination program that starts this month and reaches 70% of the population is needed to control a potential pandemic of the H1N1 flu this fall, according to research published in the September 11 issue of Science Express.

Here is some information about H1N1 flu:

•    Also known as “swine flu” it has established itself as the leading flu strain in most countries of the world

•    It differs from other seasonal flues in that no children and few adults under the age of 60 appear to have natural antibodies to this flu, making them more susceptible to catching it

•    It appears to be more dangerous to those under 25 and less dangerous to those older than 65 than other flu viruses.

Researchers from of the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Institute at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle used computer modeling and data from previous observational studies to determine how a pandemic of the H1N1 flu virus might play out and how best to control it. The researchers used information from previous epidemiological studies as well as vaccine trials from previous seasonal flu viruses in their analysis.

Each person who contracts the H1N1 virus is estimated to pass it on to 1.3 to 1.7 people, which could mean that nearly one-third of the population would be infected by this virus before the pandemic is through. The best way to control it remains an aggressive vaccination program that would start at least one month prior to the epidemic peak and initially focus on children aged 6 to 18 as well as high risk groups. These include health care and emergency workers as well as those whose compromised health places them at high risk for complications from the flu. To be maximally effective, the flu vaccine would probably need to be given twice, at three week intervals, and reach as much as 70% of the population.